Recruitment into initial teacher training is up and fewer teachers are quitting the chalkface – but shortages still persist in some subjects and cuts to bursaries are taking their toll…
Recruitment targets for initial teacher training at secondary level have been missed for the last five years and were 11% below target for 2025/26.
Similarly, ITT recruitment for 2026/27 is forecast to be 14% off target and a number of subjects are still short of teachers, including modern languages, music, and design technology.
The findings are outlined in this year’s School Teacher Labour Market in England report (Worth & Scott, 2026), which was published by the National Foundation for Educational Research on Thursday (March 19).
Despite the missed targets and subject shortages, the NFER says that this is the best recruitment performance for four years and concludes that the “overall picture for the teacher workforce is largely positive” due in no small part to weaker job prospects in the wider labour market.
The report highlights that for 2025/26, “with ITT recruitment of secondary teachers generally improving”, most subjects also saw an increase in recruitment relative to target. However, “many subjects still missed their targets”.
When it comes to its forecasts for the next academic year in 2026/27, thw report is positive:
- Chemistry recruitment is forecast to “hugely outperform” its target having seen a “surge” of 64% more accepted applicants year-on-year.
- Maths recruitment is forecast to be 22% above target after meeting its target in 2025/26 for the first time in more than a decade.
- Physics recruitment is forecast to reach 93%, having seen performance improve in 2025/26.
- Science (biology, physics and chemistry) recruitment is forecast to exceed the combined target as it did in 2025/26.
The report states: “Eight out of 17 secondary subjects are predicted to be below target (in 2026/27), including subjects that have regularly under-recruited in the past, including business studies, drama, RE and design and technology.”
The report warns that early data shows that cuts to busaries for certain subjects in 2026/27 are having an impact on recruitment. Accepted applicants for biology, for example, are down by 54% year-on-year.
The report adds: “There has been a 36% fall in the number of accepted applicants in subjects that have seen a bursary cut of £10,000 or more. Among those subjects that have seen bursary cuts of less than £10,000, there has been a 3% fall in accepted applicants.”
The report emphasises the key role bursaries play in bosoting recruitment to shortage subjects – something SecEd has previously reported upon – and urges the government in light of its proposed national curriculum reforms to “consider bursary increases for languages and arts subjects that are below their ITT targets”.
Elsewhere, the report finds that teacher retention is improving steadily. The report highlights how 9% of teachers left the state school system between 2023/24 and 2024/25, a slightly better rate than in the previous two years and down from 10.6% a decade ago.
Furthermore, the exit rate of first-year early career teachers (ECTs) who left within one year between 2023/24 and 2024/25 was 10.3%, the lowest since records began.
However, the report carries a clear warning for ministers. It says that the Department for Education’s proposed 6.5% pay rise over three years from September 2026 would result in “a mild loss of competitiveness” as it is unlikely to keep pace with wider earnings growth.
And while teacher pay has grown slightly faster than average earnings over the last three years, it adds that salaries “remain far less competitive than in 2010/11”.
The School Teachers’ Review Body is currently preparing its recommendations for teachers’ pay from September 2026. The report calls on the STRB and government to “maintain the competitiveness of teachers’ pay by matching the growth in average earnings outside teaching and funding schools to deliver it”.
Report co-author and NFER education workforce lead, Jack Worth, said: “Following more than a decade of persistent teacher recruitment and retention challenges, it is encouraging to see some signs of improvement. However, this is not a time for government or the sector to rest on their laurels. Overall secondary recruitment remains below target.
“If the government wants to achieve its 6,500 teacher recruitment pledge and maintain healthy supply into the future, it must continue to make the profession attractive. This includes increases to teachers’ pay that match or exceed wider earnings growth and further progress on reducing teacher workloads.”
The NFER’s research has been funded by the Nuffield Foundation.
- Worth & Scott: The School Teacher Labour Market in England: Annual report, NFER, March 2026.